Casualty and Fatality Rates of Massive Extinction After Asteroid Impact with Earth
Ortega, Guillermo¹; Bavandi, Antoine¹; Weikert, Sven²; Giron Sierra, Jose M.³; Laurel, Chris^4
1ESA; ²ASTOS Solutions GmbH; ³University of Madrid; ⁴Periapsis Visual Software

This talk focuses on a detailed mathematical model that is able to calculate casualty and fatality rates after the impact of an asteroid with Earth. The mathematical model has been programmed in a software tool and the corresponding casualty and fatality curves have been computed.

The mathematical model takes into account the impact of an asteroid and the subsequent destruction of life and properties. The model divides the destruction process in consecutive segments starting from the instant of the impact and allows to forecast the levels of casualties and fatalities until reaching massive extinction. This mathematical model has been validated with previous recorded catastrophes and represents an step ahead in the protection of civilians and their habitats dividing the population into sheltered and un-sheltered. The model uses the most accurate world population data base, the latest model of the Earth atmosphere, and high accuracy re-entry trajectories for the threatening asteroid.

To broad the scope and results from the model, a parametric study has been conducted showing different fatality curves as a function of the size of the astroid, its inner composition, its speed, its angle of attack at Earth entry, and its primary impact location on our planet. This massive amount of data shows revealing conclusions that will be given at the presentation.

The talk is complemented by the show of a realistic video made from the simulations of the lest and most damaging impacts of asteroids. The video will show the propagation of the extinction wave for the most dramatic case.

The controlled re-entry of ATV created a concern among ESA and CNES officials in what respect to casualty and fatality figures. In September 2008 ESA initiated a series of detailed studies to accurately compute these figures and the corresponding ground risk foot prints. The results obtained by the Technical Directorate of ESA used state of the art mathematical models that have been independently verified and validated by a parallel study in US. ATV broke into approximately 600 fragments. An asteroid of about 200 meters would fragment in much more pieces.