Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Flares
Aalbregt, M.A.; de Klerk, W.P.C.
TNO Defence, Security and Safety

Life cycle cost analysis is a highly valued tool in many industries and governments. In the Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD), in conjunction with TNO, life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is already applied to large systems. These systems include the newly build “LCF” frigates and for the replacement of the F-16 MLU. However LCCA has not been used for ammunition since they are relatively cheap in comparison with large systems. But in conjunction to the overall budget total costs of munitions take a substantial place in the budget. In order to provide the Dutch MoD an accurate foresight of the life cycle costs of munitions, TNO is creating a reliable method to produce such an accurate foresight. This paper will present the LCCA of the operational use of flares. With munition the extra difficulty is the uncertain amount of usage, although this problem can be excluded by analyzing large numbers. But not all types of munitions are suited for this solution. A flare is an example of such a type of ammunition, which due to the short maximum installed storage time on airframes (maximally one year) and the possible high usage of flares, can create false cost preferences. In this analysis multiple life cycles are addressed in order to deal with the uncertainties in the life cycle. The standard life cycle will consist of an extended time of operational use in an out-of-area operation. Hereby the varying parameters in the life cycles consist of the number of flying hours and the usage of the flares. Three types of flares are compared each with differently installed storage time and maximum number of flying hours.