Comparison of Contemporary Parametric Cost Models Used by NASA - Progress Report
Rosenberg, Leigh S.; Klein, Eric; Stukes, Sherry A.; Styers, Katherine A.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory

This presentation will be a status report on a task currently being performed at JPL that is funded by NASA PAE CAD (Program Analysis & Evaluation - Cost Analysis Division). The objective of the task is to analyze and understand the relative performance of four commonly used cost models that are currently used to assess the cost of proposed unmanned space missions that are funded by NASA. The task team is attempting to assess the relative performance of each model over a wide field of possible unmanned space mission applications. The models to be tested are PRICE, SEER, NAFCOM, PMCM. They will be used to estimate costs for over 20 launched missions across NASA for which total costs are already known.

The assessment will allow for a better selection of tools to be used for specific situations, and it will also help guide improvements for further tool upgrades. It will be possible to understand the observed error of each model through the residual of their predictions. Many models in common use throughout NASA lack quantitative proof that they can in fact predict cost based on a set of technical parameters. The validation of the models as compared to actual mission costs will strengthen the credibility of the cost community. This assessment can also lead to a better understanding and eventual reduction in project cost growth that is commonly encountered for many missions.

In order to run the models the task team is using the technical data that is available from CADRe (Cost Analysis Data Requirement), which has been implemented by NASAS PAE CAD to standardized data collection and archives across NASA. It is possible that other data sources may also be used if sufficient data from CADRe is not available.