Innovative Cost Improvement Curve
Reinbold, G.
ASTRIUM Space Transportation

ASTRIUM ST is involved in a few number of space programs, which differ extremely in production rate and quantity. Development programs, such as Columbus, exist on delivery of one flight model only. The ATV program is planned by small quantity production with a delivery rate of one flight model per year. And the Ariane 5 production program includes lot sizes of about 30 launchers at rates between three and seven per year.

A Cost Improvement Curve (CIC) or Learning Curve has to support those production situations for both, the estimating of future production costs and the normalization of historical production costs to their T1 values. The observed T1 values are from major importance for further use in cost models, because they have to correlate with technical parameters, i.e. at CER development. Hence a CIC methodology must be found, which (1) fits to the historical reference data, (2) provides consistence T1 values, (3) estimates credible costs of future production situations and (4) uses available input parameters without subjective manipulation of learning curve factors. The traditional learning curves were found not to be appropriate for use in the parametric cost estimating tool LCCM-2, so an Innovative Cost Improvement Curve is developed and investigated.