A Slightly Deconstructive Treatment of the Cost Estimating Project: Self-reflexive Cost Estimating and the Potential Rhetorical Significance of Cost Estimates
Jackson, R.¹; Dafler, J.^2
1Wright Patterson Air Force Base; ²Timken

Cost analysts typically attempt to include in their estimates that subset of pertinent information about the future which is "knowable" in at least a probabilistic sense. However, one element which is conspicuously absent from many cost estimates is the estimate itself. In a dynamic system, one would potentially benefit from accounting for the affective-power of cost estimates. Stated somewhat differently, creating a cost estimate has the potential to change the nature of the estimated phenomenon by becoming part of its own environment. This situation gives rise to at least two interrelated cost estimating concerns which are often ignored by cost analysts: first, estimating vis-á-vis a dynamic environment requires that the estimator gains an awareness of the self-reflexive nature of estimates; and second, through this increased awareness of the self-reflexive nature of estimates one increases the likelihood of having to confront the underlying philosophical concern of infinite regress. Through this paper an attempt is made to focus attention on this heretofore neglected dilemma in cost estimating, and to foster greater international discussion on this epistemological concern that rests at the center of systems thinking, and is currently on the periphery of estimating in general, and parametric cost estimating in particular.